A small but focused group of political scientists, public intellectuals, journalists and interested members of the public spent a fascinating three hours together, making sense of the recent nations elections at the Cape Town launch of Zunami!: The 2009 South African Election edited by John Daniel and Roger Southall. Various contributors to the book made condensed presentations of their findings, and this was followed by a lively discussion between members of the floor and the panelists.
The Konrad Adenauer Foundation, instrumental in the publication of this book, sponsored the event. Collette Schulz-Herzenberg started the proceedings by explaining the numbers pertaining to the 2009 election. Her simple graphs and pie charts belied complex quantitative analysis and in-depth statistical analysis of the turn out, tracking voter behaviour since 1994.
Anthony Butler, author of the biography, Cyril Ramaphosa, examined the ANC’s electoral campaign, which made use of sophisticated opinion surveys and marketing strategies at a time when the ANC was beset with economic downturn, internal conflict and a break-away faction. “Someone paid ‘good money’ for highly professional services,” he said, “as the ANC didn’t look like they were in any position to win.” He noted that despite having a “dull manifesto”, the success of the Siyanqoba! campaign could be attributed to the avoidance of controversy, the absence of attacking and the fact that the ANC has a large support base and could turn out voters by knocking on doors. “There was no need to raise the heat,” he said. Butler described Zuma as a “good campaigner” although he pointed out that the alleged abuse of state resources during the campaign remains an unresolved question.
Tsoeu Petlane examined the role and performance of smaller parties and the resilience of those that needed to attract a quarter of a percent of the overall vote – some 28 000 ballots – to secure a seat in Parliament. He said that honesty is needed about ethnic niche parties, like the Minority Front and the Freedom Front. “Notions of ideological purity keep small parties in operation,” he said. His research showed that for the PAC, strong ties of history, tradition and family relations secure party loyalty.
John Daniel’s presentation included images of party posters, with a particularly delicious irony emerging where Zuma’s face appeared above a poster advertising a forthcoming performance of Handel’s Messiah. Similarly, there were political figureheads whose mug shots appeared above banners for the musical Little Shop of Horrors.
Daniel also reflected on the decline in levels of violence associated with this election. “This was the most incident-free of the four elections. To the credit of the ANC and the IFP, a carefully managed campaign following an assassination in February led to decreased tensions in the region.”
In conclusion he posed a bevy of questions worth pondering in the next four years: Looking to the future, where is the centre of our political gravity? Will Parliament recuperate? Is the Presidency located at Luthuli House? He considered threats to the Constitution, and the appointment of the four Constitutional Court judges as a significant pointer on the autonomy of State institutions.
A lively discussion followed with Laurie Schlemmer, Ernst Uken, Rhoda Kadalie, Ben Skosana and Lorna Levy engaging and challenging the panelists.
For any still floundering to comprehend the meaning of April’s elections, this book will certainly clarify much about our current political climate. It will, in all likelihood, prove more than a little reassuring too.
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